A quick overview of my understanding of events in Syria.
Clear winners: the array of radical Sunni groups in Syria
Strategic winner: Erdogan’s Turkey
Tactical winner: Israel
Gloating: The United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia
Unclear whether winners or losers: the United States
A glimmer of peace: for Lebanon (if Hezbollah is defeated)
Caught between two fires: as always, the Kurds
Historical winners: religious fundamentalisms, fanatical nationalisms
Clear losers: Arab Ba’athism, Syrian Alawites and Shiites
Strategic losers: Iran, the Lebanese Hezbollah
Kicked out: the Russians
Tactical losers: The Ukrainians, who will become even more the focus of Putin’s wrath
Ultimate losers: the Syrians, who will emigrate to the West in increasing numbers
Extreme ultimate losers: Syrian women, who risk to be subjected to Sharia law
Historical losers: liberal democracy, socialism, Enlightenment
Past culprits: Mark Sykes and François-Georges Picot, who invented Syria in 1916.
Future perspectives: an endless story…